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2022考研英语经济学人:中国的经济增速究竟有多快?

时间:2021-05-24 16:42:51 编辑:leichenchen

      考研英语阅读能力想提升,需要考生不断地日积月累阅读文章才能感受到进步!接下来,小编为帮助考生补习英语阅读能力的不足,特意整理——2022考研英语经济学人:中国的经济增速究竟有多快?供考生参考。

2022考研英语经济学人:中国的经济增速究竟有多快?

The excited headlines were predictable. When China reported its GDP for the first three months of the year on April 16th, growth soared to 18.3% compared with a year earlier. It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.

这些激动人心的头条新闻都在意料之中。4月16日,中国公布了今年前三个月的GDP数据,相比去年同期增长了18.3%。这成为了中国有史以来最大的一次增幅,凸显了中国经济复苏的强势势头。不过,这也说明了GDP报告方式的奇怪之处。

China’s recovery should be old news. Since last March, when the country emerged from its covid-19 closures, a wide range of indicators, from metro ridership to export orders, have pointed upwards.

中国的经济复苏已经不是什么新闻了。自去年3月中国成功控制住疫情以来,从地铁客运量到出口订单等一系列指标都呈上升趋势。

But because the convention in China is to report GDP in year-on-year terms, it is only now that the recovery makes a dramatic appearance in its most-watched data series.

但由于中国过去习惯于以年为单位公布GDP数据,因此直到现在,经济复苏才在其较受欢迎的一系列数据中脱颖而出。

The nearly normal first quarter of 2021 is being compared with the largely locked-down first quarter of 2020. (If anything, the latest number was slightly below economists’ expectations).

与几乎停摆的2020年第一季度相比,2021年第一季度基本上恢复了正常。(如果说有什么不同的话,那就是新的数据略低于经济学家的预期。)

America and Japan instead focus on growth in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms: what growth would be if the quarter’s pace were maintained for a full year, adjusted for seasonality.

而美国和日本则将重点放在了季度环比的年化增长上:即假设该季度的增速能够保持一整年,那么根据季节性因素调整后,得出了这一年的增长率。

Seen this way, America’s rebound came in the third quarter of 2020, when annualised growth hit a jaw-dropping 33%. China, by contrast, reported a more modest-sounding rate of 4.9% year-on-year back then.

从这个角度来看,美国的经济反弹发生在2020年第三季度,当时的年化增长率达到了惊人的33%。相比之下,中国当年的同比增长率则较为缓和,仅为4.9%。

Both methods have drawbacks, especially in times of extreme volatility. China’s figures are backwards-looking, reflecting the economy’s horrid state a year ago as much as its relative vigour today. The American figures, by contrast, exaggerated the economy’s vigour early in the rebound, when the unemployment rate still topped 10%.

这两种方式都存在缺陷,尤其是在经济剧烈波动的时期。中国的数据是回头看的,既反映了一年前经济的低迷,又反映了如今经济的活力。相比之下,美国的数据则夸大了经济反弹初期的活力,而美国当时的失业率仍高达10%。

Annualised rates can mislead when output suddenly jumps or plunges; they implicitly assume that a one-off event repeats every quarter for a full year. In annualised terms China’s rebound was even bigger than America’s, with growth of 55% in the second quarter of 2020.

当产出突然暴增或暴跌时,由此换算的年化增长率可能具有误导性;因为他们潜在假设,一个一次性事件在一年之内的每个季度都重复发生。按年化率计算,中国的经济反弹幅度甚至比美国还要大,其在2020年第二季度的增长率达55%。

There is a third way, which is to present quarter-on-quarter growth, without annualising it. This is what most European countries emphasise. China does in fact publish quarter-on-quarter rates, but never puts them in the spotlight, partly because they are so volatile. Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is, for instance, slowed to about 0.6% from 3.2% in the preceding quarter (the latter figure was revised up from 2.6%).

此外,还有第三种方式,即不换算成年化率的季度环比增长。欧洲大多数国家都喜欢用这一数据。事实上,中国也公布了季度环比率,但从未对其特别关注,这在一定程度上是由于其波动性太大。例如,2021年第一季度的增长率从上一季度的3.2%(由2.6%修正为3.2%)放缓至0.6%。

Such a slowdown might cause the government blushes. But it would still be wise to draw more attention to the quarter-on-quarter data. They more accurately trace the ups and downs of the economy.

增速的放缓可能会让政府难堪。但让人们更多地关注于季度环比数据仍是明智之举。季度环比数据能更准确地追踪经济的起起落落。

For the rest of 2021, the quarter-on-quarter pace is likely to inch higher, even as the annual rate comes down sharply. That picture would better match China’s reality. It is a solid, somewhat bumpy rebound, not a giant one.

在2021年剩下的日子里,虽然年化率可能会大幅下跌,但季度环比的增长率可能会小幅提升。这一数据状况更符合中国的现实。这是一次坚实而又有点颠簸的反弹,而非一次巨大的反弹。

 

重难点词汇:

convention [kənˈvenʃn] n. 大会;惯例;约定

exaggerate [ɪɡˈzædʒəreɪt] v. 夸大;夸张

volatile [ˈvɑːlətl] adj. 挥发性的;不稳定的;反复无常的

bumpy [ˈbʌmpi] adj. 颠簸的;崎岖不平的

      以上是“2022考研英语经济学人:中国的经济增速究竟有多快?”,希望对2022考研考生们,在英语阅读上面有所帮助!祝2022考研顺利!

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